Is vaccination beneficial or harmful ?

Is vaccination beneficial or harmful ?
Causal diagram derived from the smallpox vaccination example in The Book of Why by Judea Pearl

Suppose that out of 8.5 million people, 70 percent are vaccinated and 30 percent are not.

If a person is vaccinated, he or she has one chance in one hundred of developing a reaction and the reaction has one chance in one hundred of being fatal.

On the other hand, he or she has no chance of developing fatal Covid19.

Meanwhile if a person is not vaccinated, he or she obviously has zero chance of developing a reaction to the vaccine but he or she has one chance in fifty of developing Covid19. Finally, let’s assume that Covid19 is fatal in one out of five cases.

Out of 8.5 million people, 5’950’000 are vaccinated, 59’500 have the reaction and 595 die from it. Meanwhile 2’550’000 people don’t get vaccinated, 51’000 get Covid19 and 10’200 die from Covid19.

In summary, 595 people die from vaccination and 10’200 unvaccinated people die from Covid19.

If no one of the total population of 8.5 million would have got the vaccination, about 34’000 people would have died. Thus vaccination prevented about 20’000 deaths.

Common sense would suggest that vaccination looks like a good idea.